Why You Can't Trust Admission Rates
Admissions rates may look like hard numbers, but your real chances depend on who you are, what a college needs, and how well the two match.
We see in the news that this college or that university has an acceptance rate of X%.
For example -
Harvard College accepted 3.59 percent of applicants to its Class of 2028 — the highest acceptance rate in four years — in the first admissions cycle since the fall of affirmative action prohibited the College from considering race during the process.
Our brain wants to translate this into “… so I have an X% chance of getting admitted”.
Actually, it’s “...so I have an X% chance of getting admitted… just like everyone else does”.
But this is incorrect.
Everyone does not have the stated X% chance of getting admitted.
Because X% does not take into account context.
Context
Context is your unique circumstances matched to a college’s unique circumstances.
Every student has a story to tell. Their story includes academic profile, home life, choices of activities out of school, and so on. This is a student’s context.
Every college and university has a story to tell. Their story includes short-term needs - e.g. more students who are business majors, more students living on campus so they can max-out capacity in that new dorm, etc… - and long-term needs that reflect their priorities, goals, and mission. This is the college’s context.
Colleges admit students when there is really strong overlap between the two stories.
The amount of overlap, and the weight given by colleges and universities to certain stories, is your actual admission chance.
Admissions rates are an aggregate - they don’t distinguish between different types of applicants.
Context happens across the following dimensions (and this is not a complete list).
Academics
Colleges look at GPA, the strength of your coursework, and (if submitted) test scores to assess readiness for college-level work.
This is highly variable by major, as you might expect. Trying to major in Computer Science or Engineering and didn’t do well in math? Or didn’t take AP Calculus? Or maybe your high school didn’t even offer Calculus?
Context.
Time Spent Outside the Classroom
Activities - like clubs, jobs, caregiving, or community service - help colleges understand what matters to you and how you’ve spent your time. This includes how deeply you participated, whether you held leadership roles, and so on.
Context.
Application Materials
Essays and recommendations give insight into your character, voice, values, and how others see you.
Context.
Awards and Recognition
Honors at the school, state, or national level can help distinguish your application and highlight excellence in a specific area.
Context.
Athletics, Arts, and Other Special Talents
Exceptional ability in sports, music, dance, or other areas may make you a priority if the college needs your talent.
Context.
First Generation
If your parents didn’t graduate from college (or didn’t graduate from college in the USA), that can help admissions officers better understand your path.
Context.
Income
Some colleges seek to enroll more low-income students, while others rely heavily on students who can pay full tuition.
Context.
State and/or Country of Residence
Where you live can impact your odds, especially at public universities or colleges seeking geographic diversity.
Context.
Alumni Relation
If your parent or close relative attended the college, that legacy connection may be a factor in your favor.
Context.
Religious Affiliation
At some colleges, a shared religious background can be viewed positively, particularly when aligned with institutional values.
Context.
Demonstrated Interest
When colleges track it, visiting campus, attending info sessions, or applying early can show that you’re genuinely excited to attend.
Context.
Institutional Priorities
Every college has goals it’s trying to meet - like boosting enrollment in certain majors or increasing diversity or paying its bills - which shape who gets admitted.
Context.
When “3.59%” Doesn’t Mean You Have a 3.59% Chance
A treasure trove of data has been released about elite college’s admissions process as a result of recent court cases. (What I’m about to describe most certainly is the case at many other colleges and universities, we just don’t have access to the same detailed data as schools aren’t typically willingly to volunteer this type of information.)
What it shows is the distinct advantages given to applicants with certain contexts.
Not surprisingly, context around a student’s financial situation has an outsized impact. Wealth is a big boost. But perhaps what is surprising is that this wealth boost comes not at the expense of students with the least means, but rather the upper middle class cohort.
Recruited athletes are often admitted with lower academic qualifications than their peers, and tend to come from higher-income families. This is true not only of “bougie” sports like squash and fencing, but also mainstream sports like track and field, basketball, football, and the like.
The money quote from the research study -
Higher admission rates for students from high-income families can be attributed to three factors: preferences for children of alumni (legacies), higher non-academic ratings, and athletic recruitment.
https://opportunityinsights.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/CollegeAdmissions_Nontech.pdf
Admissions is nuanced, and so context matters
A 3.9 GPA student from New Jersey applying to NYU may have different odds than a 3.9 GPA student from rural Idaho.
A student applying in-state to a large flagship university may face entirely different admissions odds than out-of-state applicants.
A nationally ranked oboist applying to a college with a top music program could be admitted even if their academic metrics are slightly below average.
A student applying to a highly-competitive program (or major) may face different odds than if they apply to a less-competitive program.
A student whose parent attended the college, or who applies Early Decision, might be considered differently than others in the same pool.
A student from a low-income background applying test-optional and with below mid-point grades may still be very competitive if the college values economic diversity.
And students from very wealthy families probably have a distinct advantage just about everywhere.
Instead of chasing a single admissions number, focus on what you can control.
Your academic and extracurricular growth.
The quality of your application materials.
The depth of your college research.